The short answer: The most recent ABS lending data, for the June quarter 2026, shows owner-occupier refinancing down for the quarter and roughly flat on a year earlier, after strong annual growth in the March quarter. For Aussie expats, though, whether to refinance turns on lender policy and your foreign income, not just the rate.
Here's what the numbers actually say, and why the expat version of the refinance question is a different conversation.
What the latest ABS data shows
The ABS Lending Indicators release for the June quarter 2026, published on 14 August 2026, shows in seasonally adjusted terms (ABS, Lending indicators, June Quarter 2026):
- New home loans fell 5.4% in number during the quarter and were 0.1% higher than a year earlier.
- Owner-occupier internal refinancing, meaning borrowers refinancing with their existing lender, fell 7.4% in number during the quarter and was 0.4% higher than a year earlier.
- Owner-occupier external refinancing, meaning borrowers moving to a new lender, fell 0.9% in number during the quarter and was 1.1% lower than a year earlier.
That is a change from the March quarter 2026 release, when internal refinancing was 19.5% higher in number than a year earlier and external refinancing was 3.2% higher (ABS, Lending indicators, March Quarter 2026). The ABS revises earlier quarters with each release, so the March figures are quoted as first published.
The ABS pointed to changing lending conditions in the June quarter, including the RBA's third cash rate rise of 2026 and the negative gearing and capital gains tax changes announced in the May federal budget, which are to start in July 2027 (ABS media release). It also flags continuing data quality concerns in how lenders report the value of internal refinancing, so treat those figures with some care.
Two things stand out. By number, moving to a new lender is still the more common kind of refinance. And the strong growth in refinancing seen through the year to the March quarter has levelled off.
Why the expat refinance maths is different
A domestic refinance is mostly a rate and features exercise: new lender, sharper rate, better offset. For an expat, three things change the calculation.
Your foreign income is assessed again by the new lender
When you refinance to a different lender, your foreign currency income is assessed again under that lender's policy: base salary, bonus, RSUs, allowances and the shading applied to each. The same income can support quite a different loan size at a different lender, in either direction. See how Australian lenders assess overseas salary.
Usable equity depends on the lender
If your current lender has tightened its expat lending since you took the loan, a more expat-friendly lender may let you use equity that isn't accessible where you are now. The reverse can happen too. Equity isn't an absolute number. It depends on the lender assessing it.
Rate alone isn't the trigger
For a borrower in Australia, a lower rate can be reason enough to switch. For an expat, a lower rate matters less if the new lender's policy makes the loan less useful: lower borrowing capacity if you want to buy again, fewer offset features, or less flexibility around a future move.
What actually leads to an expat refinance
For expats, a refinance is often prompted by something other than rate. Common triggers include:
- The loan was set up before you moved overseas, and your lender's expat policy is now less generous than it was, or than a competitor's.
- You want to release equity for a second property or a restructure, and your current lender won't lend further on your foreign income.
- The product no longer fits: an interest-only period is ending, the offset isn't set up the way you'd want, or a fixed term is rolling off.
None of these depend on the cash rate. They're driven by your situation.
When your lender leaves the market
There's one more trigger that's live right now. A major bank has stopped offering new home loans in Australia and agreed to sell its Australian home loan book to another owner, with a different lender expected to service those loans from 2027. It has told existing borrowers that their rate, fees, discounts and repayments will transfer across, that there's nothing they need to do right now, and that anyone who doesn't want their loan to transfer can refinance or pay it out before the transfer. If your lender has written to you about a sale like this, its own FAQs are the place to confirm the details for your loan.
So staying is a real option, and so is moving. For an expat, the questions to work through aren't only about the rate on day one. They're about what you'll be able to do with the loan later: how offset and redraw work after the transfer, whether you'll be able to top up or restructure, and, if you move, how a new lender will assess your overseas income today. It's the same question anyone faces when their lender sells its loan book, and there's no need to rush the answer.
When refinancing makes sense, and when it doesn't
It can make sense when a new lender's expat policy gives you something your current one can't: more borrowing capacity, access to equity, a better-fitting product, or a setup that suits a planned move home.
It doesn't make sense when the rate is better but the policy fit is worse, or when the costs of switching (break costs on a fixed loan, application and legal costs) outweigh what you gain. Sometimes the right answer is to stay where you are. Our guide to refinancing an Australian mortgage while living overseas covers the process.
Want a read on your own loan?
If you'd like to know whether refinancing is worth pursuing, we'll look at your current loan, your income and the expat lender options that fit your profile. See if refinancing makes sense for your situation.
Sources
- Australian Bureau of Statistics: Lending indicators, March Quarter 2026 (accessed 18 September 2026)
- Australian Bureau of Statistics: Lending indicators, June Quarter 2026 (accessed 18 September 2026)
- Australian Bureau of Statistics: New home loans fall 5.4 per cent in June quarter (accessed 18 September 2026)
Aussie Expat Home Loans holds Australian Credit Licence 509125. This article is general information only and doesn't take your personal circumstances into account. ABS figures are quoted from the June Quarter 2026 and March Quarter 2026 Lending Indicators releases. The next release, for the September quarter 2026, is due on 11 November 2026. Borrowing capacity and lender policy vary by lender and change over time, and no outcome is guaranteed. Before acting, consider your own situation and seek advice specific to it.
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