Why a long-term view matters when considering Australian property.
Periods of economic uncertainty tend to have the same effect on the property market. Buyers hold back, activity slows and the headlines become more cautious. For those in a position to buy, this is often when conditions are most favourable.
The problem with waiting for certainty
It is natural to want more clarity before making a large purchase. The challenge is that by the time the outlook improves, other buyers have usually returned, competition has increased and prices have often begun to recover.
For someone with funds available and a loan they can comfortably service, a quieter market deserves a closer look. Less competition gives buyers more room to negotiate, which can make a meaningful difference to a property they intend to hold for many years.
What previous downturns show
Since 2004, the Australian property market has been through six completed national downturns, each with a different cause. Every one was followed by a recovery that erased the fall and went on to set a new peak.
Source: CoreLogic and Cotality Home Value Index releases and research, RP Data growth phase analysis. National figures; individual markets differ. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. [1]
CoreLogic’s analysis of nine national downturns since 1980 found an average fall of 4.8% over 12 months, followed by an average upswing of around 33%.
— CoreLogic, 2021 [3]
Buyers looking at the market during any of these periods had plenty of reasons to wait. In each case, the recovery that followed was several times larger than the fall that preceded it.
National figures do not describe every market, and each property still needs to be assessed on its own location and price.
Current conditions
Cotality Home Value Index, September 2026 (via Westpac IQ); RBA, 29 September 2026. Sales volumes are preliminary.
Westpac’s October commentary on Cotality’s September 2026 results reported national values 5.2% below their March peak, with preliminary sales volumes down 17.4% over the year on a rolling three-month basis. [2]
For buyers, lower activity means less competition, longer selling periods and vendors who are more open to negotiation. We have not seen these conditions for several years.
The ability to hold matters more than perfect timing
A purchase should work on today’s figures. That means repayments that sit comfortably alongside your existing commitments, with room for changes in rates or income and, for an investment property, periods without rental income.
If a purchase only works when rates fall or prices rise quickly, the figures need revisiting. Property is a long-term game, and the ability to hold through a slower period matters more than buying at the exact bottom of the market.
Buying from overseas
For Australians living overseas, the choice of lender matters as much as the choice of property. Lenders assess foreign income differently depending on the country you live in, the currency you are paid in and how your income is structured. Foreign income can be heavily discounted, and borrowing capacity can differ by hundreds of thousands of dollars between lenders.
How the purchase is funded also deserves consideration. You may want to use available cash, draw on equity in an existing property or keep capital available for other investments. Each option affects the loan structure and repayments.
If you are planning to return to Australia, it is worth discussing your lending before your employment changes, while you can be assessed on your current income.
Putting it in context
You do not need certainty about the next six months to consider a purchase you expect to own for many years. The property still needs to be right, and the numbers need to work today. For buyers who are prepared, current conditions are worth serious consideration.
If you are considering a purchase, we can review your lending position and the options available to you.
- Downturn and recovery figures: CoreLogic and Cotality Home Value Index releases and research; RP Data growth phase analysis.
- Westpac IQ, Australian dwelling prices: Losing altitude, October 2026. westpaciq.com.au
- Eliza Owen, CoreLogic (2021): nine national downturns since 1980. propertyupdate.com.au
- Cash rate: RBA monetary policy decision, 29 September 2026. rba.gov.au
This page is general information only. It doesn't take into account your objectives, financial situation or needs, and it isn't credit assistance, financial advice or tax advice. Property values can fall, and past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Lender policies change without notice, and lending is subject to assessment and approval.
AEXPHL Group Pty Ltd · Australian Credit Licence 509125 · enquiry@aexphl.com · www.aexphl.com
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